Luck - Good and Bad

The discussion of poker being a game of luck versus a game of skill has gone on for a long time now with all of the new rules being set down, internet gaming laws, etc. I have been on the fence regarding this issue. My favorite quote has always been:

"Luck - when preparation meets opportunity"

Simply stated, you have to be good to get lucky, on the long term. Anyone can get lucky once. Continuing to get lucky, and to capitalize on those opportunities that arise requires skill.

My dad always liked to describe poker as a game of timing. It is tough to get paid off with a monster unless someone else has one too. I thought about that a lot while playing the last 2 days. I wanted to see the %s of if I got paid off with my big pre-flop hands (AQ+, TT+) and then my big post-flop hands (if I flop a nut-flush draw or open-ended straight draw, or flop 2-pair, that sort of thing).

The results were pretty astonishing over a 4 1/2 hour session playing 25NL (412 hands):

Hand # times dealt Total Profit

AA 2 $1.15
KK 3 $5.50
QQ 2 -$17.50 (Flopped set of Q's vs. set of K's)
JJ 1 $0.35 (picked up blinds)
TT 4 -$4.55
AK, AQ 7 $3.25

So, all of these preminum hands, and playing them, I am down $11.65 for the session. Then we look at the results from other playable, but not premium hands:

Hand # times dealt Total Profit

88 4 $24.75 (Once all in on a flop of AQ8, villain had AQ)
99 3 -$2.20
22-77 17 $2.25 (no flopped sets)
Suited Aces 8 $1.10
T8s 4 $8.25 (I track this one because it's my favorite hand)

As you can see from this breakdown, it's not about winning with the big hands. You aren't going to really win with them unless someone else has a really big hand too. The beauty with some of these smaller hands is that they are concealed from your opponent, and allow you to win big pot when the right cards come up.

So, is poker about luck, skill, or timing? It's a bit of all three, but if the timing is not right, if your David does not have its Goliath, then you just ain't gonna get paid.

Thanks for reading if you made it this far. See you on the felt.

Ryan