Luck - Good and Bad

The discussion of poker being a game of luck versus a game of skill has gone on for a long time now with all of the new rules being set down, internet gaming laws, etc. I have been on the fence regarding this issue. My favorite quote has always been:

"Luck - when preparation meets opportunity"

Simply stated, you have to be good to get lucky, on the long term. Anyone can get lucky once. Continuing to get lucky, and to capitalize on those opportunities that arise requires skill.

My dad always liked to describe poker as a game of timing. It is tough to get paid off with a monster unless someone else has one too. I thought about that a lot while playing the last 2 days. I wanted to see the %s of if I got paid off with my big pre-flop hands (AQ+, TT+) and then my big post-flop hands (if I flop a nut-flush draw or open-ended straight draw, or flop 2-pair, that sort of thing).

The results were pretty astonishing over a 4 1/2 hour session playing 25NL (412 hands):

Hand # times dealt Total Profit

AA 2 $1.15
KK 3 $5.50
QQ 2 -$17.50 (Flopped set of Q's vs. set of K's)
JJ 1 $0.35 (picked up blinds)
TT 4 -$4.55
AK, AQ 7 $3.25

So, all of these preminum hands, and playing them, I am down $11.65 for the session. Then we look at the results from other playable, but not premium hands:

Hand # times dealt Total Profit

88 4 $24.75 (Once all in on a flop of AQ8, villain had AQ)
99 3 -$2.20
22-77 17 $2.25 (no flopped sets)
Suited Aces 8 $1.10
T8s 4 $8.25 (I track this one because it's my favorite hand)

As you can see from this breakdown, it's not about winning with the big hands. You aren't going to really win with them unless someone else has a really big hand too. The beauty with some of these smaller hands is that they are concealed from your opponent, and allow you to win big pot when the right cards come up.

So, is poker about luck, skill, or timing? It's a bit of all three, but if the timing is not right, if your David does not have its Goliath, then you just ain't gonna get paid.

Thanks for reading if you made it this far. See you on the felt.

Ryan

Smooth sailing... for now...

Starting PS Bankroll: $174.55
Ending PS Bankroll: $195.85
Profit: $21.30

Here are some of the important hands of the day:

PokerStars Game #12202149180: Hold'em No Limit ($0.10/$0.25) - 2007/09/22 - 09:35:14 (ET)
Table 'Serpens' 6-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: Atope ($11.70 in chips)
Seat 2: PJS JR. ($14.45 in chips)
Seat 3: le_lunatic ($9.20 in chips)
Seat 4: lucky_davidi ($36.05 in chips)
Seat 5: crystalbalz ($21.60 in chips)
Seat 6: Romfour ($30.15 in chips)
Romfour: posts small blind $0.10
Atope: posts big blind $0.25
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to PJS JR. [8h Th]
PJS JR.: raises $0.75 to $1 (bit of a loose raise, but T8s is my favorite hand)
le_lunatic: calls $1
lucky_davidi: folds
crystalbalz: folds
Romfour: folds
Atope: folds
*** FLOP *** [Ts 3d 6h]
PJS JR.: bets $1
le_lunatic: calls $1
*** TURN *** [Ts 3d 6h] [8s]
Perfect turn card for me for sure, I love T8s
PJS JR.: bets $4
le_lunatic: calls $4
*** RIVER *** [Ts 3d 6h 8s] [2h]
PJS JR.: bets $8.45 and is all-in
le_lunatic: calls $3.20 and is all-in
*** SHOW DOWN ***
PJS JR.: shows [8h Th] (two pair, Tens and Eights)
le_lunatic: mucks hand
PJS JR. collected $17.85 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $18.75 | Rake $0.90
Board [Ts 3d 6h 8s 2h]
Seat 1: Atope (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 2: PJS JR. showed [8h Th] and won ($17.85) with two pair, Tens and Eights
Seat 3: le_lunatic mucked [Tc Jc]
Seat 4: lucky_davidi folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: crystalbalz (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: Romfour (small blind) folded before Flop

Then later...

PokerStars Game #12207359800: Hold'em No Limit ($0.10/$0.25) - 2007/09/22 - 15:25:47 (ET)
Table 'Lesya' 6-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: PinniePoo ($23.20 in chips)
Seat 2: PJS JR. ($25.75 in chips)
Seat 3: dginchico ($9.75 in chips)
Seat 5: Hadaoui ($28.55 in chips)
Seat 6: 2gr8u ($33 in chips)
PJS JR.: posts small blind $0.10
dginchico: posts big blind $0.25
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to PJS JR. [Qd Ad]
Hadaoui: folds
2gr8u: folds
PinniePoo: folds
PJS JR.: raises $1 to $1.25
dginchico: raises $1 to $2.25
PJS JR.: calls $1
*** FLOP *** [6d 7s 2d]
PJS JR.: bets $7.50
dginchico: calls $7.50 and is all-in
*** TURN *** [6d 7s 2d] [4s]
*** RIVER *** [6d 7s 2d 4s] [5c]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
PJS JR.: shows [Qd Ad] (high card Ace)
Didn't hit my outs, but apparently I didn't need to
dginchico: mucks hand
PJS JR. collected $18.55 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $19.50 | Rake $0.95
Board [6d 7s 2d 4s 5c]
Seat 1: PinniePoo (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: PJS JR. (small blind) showed [Qd Ad] and won ($18.55) with high card Ace
Seat 3: dginchico (big blind) mucked [Kc Td]
Seat 5: Hadaoui folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: 2gr8u folded before Flop (didn't bet)

Then, this was a nice little hand as well...

PokerStars Game #12208777379: Hold'em No Limit ($0.10/$0.25) - 2007/09/22 - 16:44:29 (ET)
Table 'Liriope II' 6-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: PJS JR. ($25.30 in chips)
Seat 2: Seikeau ($24.40 in chips)
Seat 4: Insoxenated ($23.95 in chips)
Seat 5: vettejunkie ($58.50 in chips)
Seat 6: love Fruits ($23.25 in chips)
stavar77 will be allowed to play after the button
Insoxenated: posts small blind $0.10
vettejunkie: posts big blind $0.25
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to PJS JR. [7d 7h]
love Fruits has timed out
love Fruits: folds
love Fruits is sitting out
PJS JR.: raises $0.50 to $0.75
Seikeau: folds
Insoxenated: raises $1.25 to $2
vettejunkie: folds
PJS JR.: calls $1.25
*** FLOP *** [2h 2d 2s]
Insoxenated: bets $2
PJS JR.: calls $2
*** TURN *** [2h 2d 2s] [9s]
Insoxenated: bets $1
PJS JR.: raises $4 to $5
Insoxenated: folds
PJS JR. collected $9.80 from pot
PJS JR.: doesn't show hand
Was hoping for a little more action, maybe he folded 33-66?
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $10.25 | Rake $0.45
Board [2h 2d 2s 9s]
Seat 1: PJS JR. collected ($9.80)
Seat 2: Seikeau (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: Insoxenated (small blind) folded on the Turn
Seat 5: vettejunkie (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 6: love Fruits folded before Flop (didn't bet)

I tried to keep my hands small unless I had a monster, which I rarely had. Anyways, it was a good day overall... we will see you tomorrow.

See you at the tables. Ryan

Bad Players

Beginning PS Bankroll: $172.25
Ending PS Bankroll: $174.55
Profit: $2.30 (3-hour session)

Probably the most frustrating thing about low-limit hold'em is the amount of bad players. Obviously, if you are running well, you welcome all of the bad players. When you are not running so well, it makes it difficult to be consistantly in the money.

Case in point, last night, I played 14 6-man $3.25 sit-n-gos, all on PS. Finished in the money in 4 of the first 5, 3-2nd place finishes, and 1 first. Then, all of a sudden, my good hands keep getting taken out by not-so-good hands:

AA < 44 - all-in pre-flop
A8 < J8 - all-in after a flop of 8-8-5
TT < J2 - all-in after a flop of 2-3-4

Ended the session by finishing 4th-6th in my last 6 sit-n-gos, and ended up down about $8.60 for the sit-n-go session. I would be lying if I said I wasn't on a bit of a tilt after doing so poorly in the last 6 tourneys. The only good thing about being on tilt is that it helps me a little sometimes in cash games. I am typicaly quite a timid player, or conservative to say the least. When I jump onto a cash games after poorly played sit-n-gos, I seem to get agressive. Most of the time, it works out.

I proceeded to make back about $11 playing 2 tables of 10NL, with not much action on one table, and doubling up on the other after flopping a set of 2's, and having my opponent make trip Aces by the river.

Won't be playing Wednesday, playing some live poker tonight, and then my wife is in for surgery on Thursday. Probably won't be playing now until Saturday then.

Thanks for reading.

Ryan

Here we go...

Hello all!

My name is Ryan (PJS JR on FT, PJS JR. on Stars), and I am an addict. That's right, I am addicted. I can't get enough. Poker that is. I started playing about 2 months ago, low limit stuff, and I figure that I am going to be playing as much as possible, and I want to track my progress, so the best way to do this is with a blog.

I plan on doing the basic stuff, showing some hand histories, talking about bad beats, game theory, my overall thoughts about poker and non-poker related stuff, and hope to have a lot of fun along the way.

About 7 weeks ago, I deposited $100 of PokerStars and $100 on FullTilt. I see a lot of differences between the two sites, promotions offered, a little variance in the games offered and tournament buy-ins, so I thought I would try both.

I have focussed my play on the following:

PokerStars:
$3.00+0.25 6-person turbo sit-n-gos
$0.05/$0.10 6-person cash games

FullTilt:
$2.00+0.25 9-person sit-n-gos

I have thrown in the odd $5.00+0.50 9-person on Stars and FT, though I have played very few. Currently, as of September 18, 2007, my account balances are as follows:

Stars: $172.25
FT: $120.44
Total Profit: $92.69

A pretty good start. I will leave that as my first post, and try to post at least twice a week. I want to post a 6-person sit-n-go from a couple of weeks back that I came back from 10 chips to rally for an improbable victory, and I'll do that in my next post.

For now, I hope to see all of you at the tables, and good luck!

Ryan